White Paper October 17, 2020: EPIC V3.1.1 Crude Oil Machine Trading – 19 Week 100% Win Rate Achieved

The EPIC Oil Machine trading software is now much further along in development.

In short, the software is now extremely stable, the average intra-sequence draw-down much lower, the win rate very high and the ROI approaching 60% and expected to slowly and steadily increase in a stable environment.

The ROI is much lower than the 150% our team was targeting with early versions but provides an extremely stable environment, which is considerably more important.

The majority of the changes to the code were done during the black swan crude oil negative trading price black swan event event of 2020 (COVID 19).

The white paper update below is a near copy of the original Sept 23, 2019 paper with edits reflecting changes to the code architecture.

Historical white paper publications for the EPIC software development can be found here:

• September 23, 2019: White Paper Updated Dec 29, 2019: How EPIC v3 Crude Oil Machine Trading Outperforms Conventional Trading
• June 4, 2020: EPIC V3.1.1 Crude Oil Machine Trade Software Update | June 4, 2020 White Paper #OOTT $CL_F $USO $USOIL
• April 19, 2020: EPIC V3.1 Crude Oil Machine Trade Software Update Details | White Paper #OOTT $CL_F $USO $USOIL 

Draft white paper outlining key reasons EPIC v3 oil futures machine trading software outperforms conventional trading methods:

In the most recent version of the software, specific to the 7 point list below, the most significant changes were to point 5 and 7 below. Specific to point 5, the EPIC IDENT™ system gains more intelligence and becomes more significant to win rate as time goes on and specific to point 7, the trajectory game component decision weight was significantly lowered.

The two primary changes noted significantly changed the win rate to the high side and lowered the average draw down size intra sequence.

1. Lightening Fast Decisions. EPIC crude oil trading software executes trades to over 9300 weighted decisions instantly. The instructions provided within the architecture is growing daily. A human trader cannot make decisions as quickly, cannot process the data required for most intelligent trading probabilities and cannot execute trades as precisely.
2. Algorithmic Chart Models. The EPIC software includes over thirty proprietary algorithmic chart models and the catalogue is growing. The algorithmic models have been designed, tested and refined in real-world trade for over 4 years by a team of day traders, each with over 20 years of experience. The oil trading models represent all time-frames from 15 second to monthly time-frames of trade. The algorithmic models have been back-tested to sixty months historically.
3. Conventional Charting. The software includes conventional charting structures on all time-frames, also back-tested sixty months.
4. Common Trade Set-Ups. Included in the software are common trade set-ups that oil day traders implement. This is dynamic and additions are made regularly to the software code reflecting current structured trade set-ups.
5. Order Flow. EPIC IDENT™ is data-driven order flow intelligence in real-time to achieve best outcomes. The software includes and executes to a proprietary order flow identification system that tracks behavior (specifically isolating other market machine liquidity) and weighs identified entities and historical trade patterns to its trade decisions (instructions). EPIC IDENT™ increases its intelligence as it gathers data intra-day specific to liquidity flow, historical patterns, time of day, volatility, various preferences, latency, rejects and more. The method is similar to back-testing charting, however, the process is real-time. In short the software is looking for “fingerprints” within market liquidity. We cannot back-test 60 months as with charting but back-testing from date of software inception is possible. The EPIC IDENT™ system is the primary reason for the most recent version 100% win rate (June 1, 2020 to October 17, 2020).
6. Time Cycles. Time cycles are within all algorithmic and conventional trading model structures, order flow also has identified time cycles and other time cycle events such as weekly reporting in oil markets such as API, EIA and rig counts. Additionally there are time-of day market time cycles around the world. Time-cycles are included in the software architecture.
7. ROI Trajectory “Game”. IN THE NEWEST SOFTWARE UPDATE this component of the software was significantly lowered in decision weight. From previous paper descriptions: The EPIC software has a “game” element in that it is designed to continue its most recent ROI trajectory (or return to its trajectory of ROI should it have a draw-down period). In other words, if the trajectory of ROI is for example 100% and it draws-down to 80% it then will “weigh” trade decisions more to the most probable trade set-ups until the ROI trajectory is returned. It also will push its decision “weight” to exceed the current ROI trajectory to establish a better ROI to which it is then “obligated” to maintain and correct to, hence the expectation that the ROI will continue to improve over time. This is the “machine learning” component of development. We are finding that the software is discovering increasingly more creative ways to “game” the ROI return trajectory. This Sept 4, 2019 document details an insider look at this topic within development. Edited Sept 5, Draw-Down Oil Daytrading Session: Question and Answer Review | EPIC V3 Crude Oil Machine Trading Software.

Combined, these advantages enable the EPIC v3 Crude Oil Trading software to outperform conventional trading methods.

Introduction.

The world of public market trade is rapidly changing. It is estimated (depending on source) that over 80% of crude oil futures are not traded by humans and are now traded by machine.

Machine trade may be simple bot style software, high-frequency software or more sophisticated architecture as with the EPIC v3 class of algorithm.

Our team commenced the oil trading software development journey five years ago with algorithmic chart model development. From day one we employed computer scientists to work with us on a daily basis to build software emulating our trading methods.

Over time the software started to win more trades than our traders and today we rely almost solely on the software to execute trades. We simply “tweak” the software at each trade sequence to improve performance.

EPIC v3 software is our 3rd generation oil trading software. EPIC v1 tested returns at about 20% per annum, EPIC v2 at 40% per annum and EPIC v4 architecture was too aggressive for our risk threshold. We settled on EPIC v3 and have been refining its code trade by trade since.

The current EPIC v3 win-rate consistently comes in at +-100% per trade sequence (variable by +-0% as of the date of publication).

The current EPIC return is projected at 59% per year  based on real world performance (audited trades available) and is expected to increase slowly over time. The current period of time spans approximately 19 weeks and includes hundreds of trade executions. 

Black Swan Update, June 1-October 15 Profit & Loss YTD +$74,940 or $234,184 59% ROI Per Annum. EPIC V3.1.1 Oil Machine Trade 400k Account (time stamped alerts, audited P&L) #OOTT $CL_F $USOIL $USO #oiltradealerts #oiltradingroom